Real estate Marbella market update 2021 by Marcos Loriente

Marcos Loriente, director of HHomes, shares his vision on the performance and predictions of the real estate market in the Costa del Sol: Marbella, Benahavis, and Estepona.
The real estate market in Marbella, Benahavís and Estepona, also known as the Golden Triangle of the Costa del Sol, has experienced a 6.75% decrease during 2020 (equivalent to 500 transactions), according to the data recently published by the Ministry of Public Works.

It is important to differentiate between existing home transactions and new builds.

How has the housing market performed in relation to existing homes in 2020 compared to 2019?

Existing homes, with a total of 5 536 transactions, have decreased by 17% compared to 2019.

The first three quarters of 2020 experienced a combined drop of 28%. The height of the drop was during the confinement, the second quarter of the year, where transactions decreased by 54%.

The last quarter of the year, transactions increased by 14%, with a total of 1,995 transactions. This was the second best 4th quarter during the past 15 years.

How has the new build housing market performed in 2020 compared to 2019?

Before getting into numbers, we must bear in mind that new builds have an important factor that distorts these figures. This factor is that a large number of sales closed on average 12 months before the signing of the public deed, which is the main reason why the data published displays positive findings.

New construction homes, with a total of 1,373 transactions, increased by 79% compared to 2019.

The only month that new construction housing transactions decreased was during the lockdown in the 2nd quarter of the year, 13% decrease.

The remaining quarters of the year experienced exceptional growth. 1st quarter with an increase of 228%, 19% in the 3rd quarter, and 165% increase in the 4th quarter.

Conclusions for the year 2020

The data provided is much more positive than what the forecasts were at the beginning regarding the real estate market in Marbella.  Housing, and in particular luxury villas, have been greatly strengthened during this crisis.

The real estate market of Marbella, Benahavís and Estepona, where lifestyle, luxury, holiday homes and principal residence come together, with an international demand from a multitude of nationalities, is once again positioned as one of the best destinations in the world to invest.

What are the forecasts for 2021?

During 2021, we can predict a healthy real estate market regarding existing homes. We will continue to see signs of stable growth with prices rising in prime locations, especially in villas and penthouses. Many families are deciding to leave their native countries and come to live in sunny Marbella. Instead of buyers interested in buying existing homes in Marbella, they are buying homes to live in year round. These spacious and well-located properties are mainly villas and penthouses.

As for new construction properties in Marbella, we anticipate that the real estate market will return to where we were at the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020, a time where there was some difficulty in achieving healthy sales rates, due to the excess of supply and after reaching maximum prices. We will see some promotions from builders (which already had signs of difficulty in achieving good sales rates before COVID) and their motivation to lower prices to dump their stock.

Analysis by Marcos Loriente – HHomes

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